Hello Traders,
today morning I got a call from one of my friend and he was simply scared with the run in the markets and was expecting the markets to fall from couple of months. But the market has been going one sided up.
Now he worried and asked me
1. if this is the time to get out of long positions in markets, or
2. should he go for some shorts or
3. this is the time to get in to fresh longs?
When I asked him whats the horizon of his positions or holding time period? Surprisingly He had no answer to it!
So I told him to read my upcoming blog and would also like the same action from you.
Please note the views in this article are personal and not an advise to buy or sell recommendations.
Chart source: Trading view Monthly chart of Nifty
If we look at the monthly chart of nifty, the point where nifty is today from the bottoms of 2020 it seems the rally is over run. But is it so, Its not.
If we look at the ellipse (red background area) the markets were taking a long breather during a period of mid 2022 to mid 2023. The markets were quite choppy but the corrections didn’t lasted long.
And the June month close was the highest monthly closing on the chart which is telling a different story.
If we took the 18887 high of dec 2022 and the low of march 2023 i.e. 16828 then the 138.20% & 161.80% retracement of the fall are placed at 19677 & 20164.
Also lets not forget the March 2023 month candle was a doji candle which is also showing the turn in the market trajectory.
Which means before the markets do correct there is high probability they can touch the 19677 and 20164 levels.
lets look at the same on below chart
Chart source: Trading View Monthly chart of Nifty
If we look at weekly chart of nifty with another technical perspective and use the pitchfork study, we get to see some interesting chart pattern. lets look at it in below chart,
Chart source: Trading View Weekly chart of Nifty
If we look at the weekly chart, we can see that the markets have tried to break and sustain above 18500 mark quite a few times and failed (point A, B, D) and made a low of point C.
and this time they have failed to break below the earlier low of point c and trying to make a fresh highs.
Itself indicating as strong bullish move. look at the middle red line on the chart and the green patch between the two blue patches.
The green patch and the market sustaining in it indicates bullish without much volatility and over run.
It is said to be the markets are over run if the start trading in and above the higher blue are on the pitchfork.
So, in a nutshell, it seems the markets are going to continue its rally and a smaller ups and downs are going to be there which should not negate the view on the markets.
If you are a conservative trader or investor then probably you should be looking at booking profits around 19677 and 20164 levels and avoid fresh longs.
I hope you liked it.
If you like then share it with your friends
Happy Trading,
Be A Wealthy Trader…
